谢林点：无需沟通的合作Schelling Point: Cooperating Without Communicating
Nivi：我们来聊聊谢林点吧。
Naval：谢林点是一个博弈论概念，由托马斯·谢林（Thomas Schelling）在他的著作《冲突的策略中提出并使其广为人知，我推荐这本书。
它涉及多人博弈，在这种博弈中，人们会根据自己对他人会如何反应的猜测来做出反应。他提出了一种数学形式化方法，来回答这个问题：如何让无法相互沟通的人们协调行动？
利用社会规范在无法沟通时展开合作
假设我想和你见面，但我没有告诉你见面的地点和时间。你也想和我见面，但我们无法沟通。这听起来像是一个无法解决的问题——我们做不到。但事实并非完全如此。
你可以利用社会规范收敛到一个谢林点。我知道你是理性且有教养的，你也知道我是理性且有教养的。我们俩都会开始思考。
我们什么时候见面？如果必须选一个任意的日期，我们很可能会选除夕夜。我们几点见面？午夜或凌晨 12:01。我们在哪里见面？如果我们是美国人，大聚会的地点很可能是纽约市，这座最重要的城市。在纽约市的哪里见面？很可能是在中央车站的大钟下面。也许你最终会出现在帝国大厦，但可能性不大。
你可以在商业、艺术和政治中找到谢林点
有很多博弈——无论是商业、艺术还是政治——你都能找到谢林点。因此，即使无法沟通，你也能与对方合作。
这里有个简单的例子：假设两家公司在激烈竞争，形成了寡头垄断。假设这项服务的价格在 8 美元到 12 美元之间波动。如果它们从不交谈却收敛到 10 美元，别感到惊讶。
Nivi: Let’s talk about Schelling points.
Naval: The Schelling point is a game theory concept made famous by Thomas Schelling in his book, The Strategy of Conflict, which I recommend.
It’s about multiplayer games where people respond based on what they think the other person’s response will be. He came up with a mathematical formalization to answer: How do you get people who cannot communicate with each other to coordinate?
Use social norms to cooperate when you can’t communicate
Suppose I want to meet with you, but I don’t tell you where or when to meet. You also want to meet with me, but we can’t communicate. That sounds like an impossible problem to solve—we can’t do it. But not quite.
You can use social norms to converge on a Schelling point. I know you’re rational and educated. And you know I’m rational and educated. We’re both going to start thinking.
When will we meet? If we have to pick an arbitrary date, we’ll probably pick New Year’s Eve. What time will we meet? Midnight or 12:01 a.m. Where will we meet? If we’re Americans, the big meeting spot is probably New York City, the most important city. Where in New York City will we meet? Probably under the clock at Grand Central Station. Maybe you end up at the Empire State Building, but not likely.
You can find Schelling points in business, art and politics
There are many games—whether it’s business or art or politics—where you can find a Schelling point. So you can cooperate with the other person, even when you can’t communicate.
Here’s a simple example: Suppose two companies are competing heavily and hold an oligopoly. Let’s say the price fluctuates between $8 and $12 for whatever the service is. Don’t be surprised if they converge on $10 without ever talking to each other.