把短期游戏变成长期游戏Turn Short-Term Games Into Long-Term Games
Nivi： 你想聊聊帕累托最优吗？
Naval： 帕累托最优是博弈论中的另一个概念，与之相关的还有帕累托更优（Pareto superior）。
帕累托更优是指某个方案在某些方面变得更好，同时在其他方面持平或更好——它在任何方面都不会更差。这是谈判时的一个重要概念。如果你能让一个方案相比之前实现帕累托更优，你总会这么做。
帕累托最优：想改善任何一项指标，都必须付出权衡取舍
帕累托最优是指方案已经达到可能的最佳状态，任何改变都会让至少一个维度变得更差。从这一点往后，就只剩下硬性的权衡取舍。
当你参与一场重大谈判时，理解这些概念很重要。
谈判的赢家是更不在乎的一方
不过我一向认为："谈判的赢家是更不在乎的一方。"谈判的关键在于别太想要。如果你太想要某样东西，对方就能从你身上榨取更多价值。
如果在谈判中有人占你便宜，你最好的选择是把它从短期博弈变成长期博弈。想办法让它变成重复博弈，想办法把声誉引入谈判，想办法把将来可能和这个人打交道的人也拉进来。
装修房子就是一个高成本、低信息、单次博弈的例子。
承包商素来以超量接单、宰客、不负责任而闻名。我相信承包商也有自己的一套说法："房主的要求不合理。""我们发现了问题。""房主不想为此付钱。""他们不懂行，是信息匮乏的买家。"
这是一笔昂贵的交易。一直以来都很难找到靠谱的承包商；而承包商对房主也知之甚少。
把单次博弈变成多次博弈
所以你会试着通过朋友介绍，找声誉好的人。你实际上是在把一场昂贵的、双方都很可能耍诈的单次博弈，变成多次博弈。
方法之一是这么说："其实我有两个不同的项目要做。第一个项目我们先一起做，做完之后我再决定要不要做第二个项目。"
另一个方法是说："我要和你做这个项目，我还有三个朋友也有项目要做，他们正等着看这个项目的结果呢。"
还有一个方法是在 Yelp 或 Thumbtack 上写评价——尤其是当承包商在某个社区里经营生意、想要维护自己在那个社区的名声时。
这些都是把单次博弈变成更长期博弈的办法，能帮你摆脱谈判筹码薄弱、信息匮乏的不利处境。
Nivi: Do you want to talk about Pareto optimal?
Naval: Pareto optimal is another concept from game theory, along with Pareto superior.
Pareto superior means something is better in some ways while being equal or better in other ways. It’s not worse in any way. This is an important concept when you’re negotiating. If you can make a solution Pareto superior to where it was before, you will always do that.
Pareto optimal solutions require a trade-off to improve any criterion
Pareto optimal is when the solution is the best it can possibly be and you can’t change it without making it worse in at least one dimension. There is a hard trade-off from this point forward.
These are important concepts to understand when you’re involved in a big negotiation.
Negotiations are won by whoever cares less
I generally say, though: “Negotiations are won by whoever cares less.” Negotiation is about not wanting it too badly. If you want something too badly, the other person can extract more value from you.
If someone is taking advantage of you in a negotiation, your best option is to turn it from a short-term game into a long-term game. Try to make it a repeat game. Try to bring reputation into the negotiation. Try to include other people who may want to play games with this person in the future.
An example of a high-cost, low-information single-move game is having your house renovated.
Contractors are notorious for overbooking, ripping people off, and being unaccountable. I’m sure contractors have their own side to it: “The homeowner has unreasonable demands.” “We found problems.” “The homeowner doesn’t want to pay for it.” “They don’t understand; they’re low-information buyers.”
It’s an expensive transaction. Historically it’s been very hard to find good contractors; and the contractor has little information on the homeowner.
Convert single-move games to multi-move games
So you try to go through friends. You try to find people with good reputations. You’re converting an expensive single-move game with a high probability of cheating on both sides into a multi-move game.
One way to do that is to say: “Actually, I need two different projects done. The first project we’ll do together, and based on that I’ll decide if we do the second project.”
Another way is to say: “I’m going to do this project with you, and I have three friends who want projects done who are waiting to see the outcome of this project.”
Another way is to write a Yelp or Thumbtack review—especially if the contractor operates within a community and wants to protect their reputation in that community.
These are all ways to turn a single-move game into a longer term game and get past a position of poor negotiating leverage and poor information.