Web 2.0 是什么，这还不明显吗？Isn’t it obvious what Web 2.0 is?
关于 Web 2.0 是什么、意味着什么，有太多的讨论和焦虑。答案不是明摆着的吗？
Web 1.0 是网景（Netscape）上市到 2000 年 3 月互联网泡沫破裂之间的那段时期。它的标志是非理性的繁荣、过度的融资和铺天盖地的炒作，但同时也带来了面向消费者的基础技术的广泛部署、一夜之间诞生大量高利润率的大公司，以及财富的大规模创造与转移。简而言之，Web 1.0 就是第一个泡沫。
Web 2.0 就是第二个泡沫。
在 Web 2.0 这把大伞下被混为一谈的东西很多，但它是一种弥漫在空气中的感觉、一个时代，而不是一个地点。它是那股乐观的气息（稍微谨慎了一点）、那条资金的洪流（稍微少了一点）、创业公司的炒作机器（稍微隐晦了一点），以及大批高利润率公司的诞生（稍微少了几个）。
不过，这是一个有点自我陶醉的泡沫。我们曾一致认为互联网最大的影响是消费者网络——其实不是。真正的影响是，互联网催生的离岸外包让全球劳动力翻了一番。看起来真正的金钱之痛来自互联网股票的崩盘——其实也不是。它来自杠杆过度的电信行业。
同样地，真正需要警惕的泡沫并不是 Web 2.0 泡沫——而是过去五年美联储推动流动性增加之后，资产价格、房地产和股票的大幅上涨。如果那个泡沫破裂，可要小心了。
There’s a lot of talk and angst about what Web 2.0 is or means. Isn’t it obvious?
Web 1.0 was the time period between Netscape’s IPO and the March 2000 dot-com crash. It was exemplified by irrational exuberance, over-funding, and massive hype, but also by the mass-deployment of fundamental consumer-facing technologies, the birth of huge, high-margin businesses overnight, and a massive creation and transfer of wealth. In short Web 1.0 was the first bubble.
Web 2.0 is the second bubble.
There’re a lot of things being mish-mashed under the Web 2.0 umbrella, but it’s a sense in the air, a time, not a place. It’s that air of optimism (a little more cautious), that river of funding (a little less), the startup hype machine (slightly more subtle), and the birth of huge, high margin businesses (a few less).
This is a bit of a navel-gazing bubble though. We collectively thought that the biggest effect of the Internet was the consumer web – it wasn’t. It was the doubling of the global labor force that Internet-enabled offshoring enabled. It seemed like the real monetary pain came from bursting dot-com stocks. It didn’t – it came from the overleveraged telecom sector.
In the same vein, the real bubble to be afraid of is not the Web Bubble 2.0 – it’s the massive run-up in asset prices, real estate and stocks, post the Fed-driven increase in liquidity of the last five years. If that one pops, watch out.