为什么（私人）投资者是羊群动物Why (Private) Investors are Herd Animals
有个常见的抱怨——风险投资人被其他投资人的想法牵着走，因此缺乏想象力和胆识。
这话有一定道理——毕竟，做决定时寻求社会认同和权威是人之常情。然而，事情不止这么简单。
在公开市场，投资者们是并行做出投资决策的，而且理论上，法律要求公司的大部分相关信息都要公开披露。企业也成熟得多，因此更容易估值。最后，市场流动性极强、深度极深，所以无论是当前可用资金还是未来的资金供给，都没有太多不确定性。
在公开市场，我几乎不可能掌握某家公司前景的私有数据；就算我掌握了，我一买一卖股票就会撼动价格。你根本没机会利用我的信息——等你得知时，它早已体现在价格里了。
相比之下，在私人市场，大量非公开信息散布在许多个人手中，而且他们有从容串行决策的奢侈。企业都是全新的、不成熟的，很难估值。市场很浅、流动性很差，而且存在“凯恩斯选美竞赛”效应——你之所以现在想给一家公司投资，只是因为它在未来很可能获得投资。
因此，当你看到其他投资者蜂拥进入一家公司时，你可以推断出：– 他们可能掌握了一些你不了解的公司或市场信息，因为大量信息（创始人质量、竞争状况、真实市场规模等）都是私密的，散布在许多人的头脑中 – 这家公司未来更有可能获得投资，因为它似乎能吸引许多优质投资者（即前面提到的凯恩斯选美竞赛） – 而且你仍然来得及按同样的价格利用这个新信息
最后这一点比其他任何一点都更能解释投资者为什么会扎堆跟风。
私人投资者扎堆跟风是理性的。他们有强烈的动机——信息有限且分散。更重要的是，他们有这样的手段——融资交易中，投资者串行决策时价格并不会随之变动。
It’s a common complaint – venture investors are driven by what other investors think, and therefore lack imagination and spine.
There’s some truth to it – it is human nature, after all, to look for social proof and authority when making decisions. However, that’s not the whole story.
In public markets, Investors make their decisions to invest in parallel, and in theory, most of the relevant information about a company is publicly disclosed, by law. Businesses are also much more mature, and therefore easier to value. Finally, the market is very liquid and very deep, so there isn’t much uncertainty about the supply of money available and availability of money in the future.
In a public market, it’s unlikely that I have access to private data about a company’s prospects, and if I do, I buy or sell the stock and move the price. Your ability to act on my knowledge is zero – by the time you learn about it, it will already be built into the price.
By contrast, in private markets, there is a lot more non-public information scattered across many individuals, and they have the luxury of deciding in series. Businesses are brand new and immature, and very difficult to value. The market is shallow and illiquid, and a “Keynesian Beauty Contest” means that you want to finance a company now just because it is likely to be financed in the future.
Therefore, when you see other investors piling into a company, you can infer: – They probably know something about the company or the market that you don’t, given that a lot of the information (quality of founders, state of competition, true size of market, etc.) is private and scattered across many minds
– This company is more likely to get financed in the future, since it seems able to attract many, high quality investors (the aforementioned Keynesian Beauty Contest)
– And you *still have time to act at the same price* on this new information
That last fact more than any other causes Investors to move in herds.
It is rational for private investors to move in herds. They have the strong incentive – limited and diffuse knowledge. More importantly, they have the means – financings in which the price doesn’t change as the investors decide in series.