永动刺激机Perpetual Stimulation Machine
经济刺激是一场闹剧,这一点,凡是翻开过经济学入门(Econ 101)教材、或者摆过柠檬水摊的人,都应该一目了然。
这 1500 亿美元从哪来?削减其他开支(相互抵消了)、增税(等于从私营部门减少支出——比抵消还糟)、向国外借款(抬高私营企业的资本成本,或引发通胀,结果还是抵消)、或者印更多的钱(通胀/购买力下降,而取决于它对通胀预期的影响,可能比抵消更糟)。
数亿人竟然相信这套说辞,记者和政客们还不断一本正经地兜售这种荒谬透顶的错误,这实在是对大众令人失望的控诉。
为了纪念他们,让我们造一台"永动刺激机"吧!政府应该向经济中注入越来越多的钱。注入得越多,经济就越受刺激,GDP 就会增长,政府税收就会上升,然后就可以注入更多的刺激!
事实上,我认为朝鲜和古巴的经济正是这样运转的。
注:那些声称刺激计划会把钱从储蓄者手里转移到消费者手中的人,肯定跳过了 Econ 102。储蓄同样会被贷出去并花掉。储蓄 = 投资
注 2:经济刺激大概是经济学中最古老的谬误——破窗谬误,它和"战争推动增长"谬误其实是同一个东西。
The economic stimulus is a farce, as should be obvious to anyone who cracked open their Econ 101 textbook or ever ran a lemonade stand.
Where is the $150B going to come from? Reduced spending elsewhere (wash), increased taxes (same as reducing spending from the private sector – worse than a wash), borrowing from abroad (raises the price of capital for private businesses, or causes inflation, resulting in a wash), or printing more money (inflation / reduced purchasing power, which depending on what it does to inflation expectations, can be worse than a wash).
The fact that hundreds of millions of people believe this and that journalists and politicians constantly spout something so egregiously false at face value is a disappointing indictment of the masses.
In their honor, let us create the Perpetual Stimulation Machine! The government should inject more and more money into the economy. As it injects more, the economy will be stimulated, GDP will increase, government tax receipts will rise, and more stimuli can be injected!
In fact, I think just such economies are underway in North Korea and Cuba.
Note: Those who argue that money will be moved in a stimulus package from savers to spenders skipped Econ 102. Savings get loaned out and spent as well. Savings = Investment
Note 2: The stimulus is probably the oldest fallacy in Economics – the Broken Window Fallacy, which is also the same as the “Wars spur Growth” fallacy.