理性乐观主义是出路Rational Optimism Is the Way Out
Naval： 那些以同行的反馈为评价标准的职业，往往会走向腐化。
当你看到一位记者写文章是为了打动其他记者，或是一位餐厅老板努力取悦其他美食家和餐厅老板时，通常既不实用，也称不上高品质。
记者或餐厅老板或许会在某些精英圈子里收获赞誉，但那并不反映现实。
科学家或实验者从大自然那里获得反馈，创业者则从自由市场获得反馈——人们在那里用金钱和时间投票。这些是更好的预测指标。
靠真实世界谋生的人往往乐观。在象牙塔里做事的人则被激励成为悲观主义者。
Brett： 要成为创业者，你需要乐观地相信，你正在创造的东西是别人会认为有价值的。
持有悲观哲学的人，往往也拥有悲观的心理学。
如果你总是想着世界会以各种方式走向毁灭，这会对你看待一切的日常眼光产生影响——对整个社会、对家人、对朋友——因为你认为这个世界注定要完。
你会感到肩上的重担，而它会通过你向世界呈现自己的方式流露出来。
我们在社交媒体上看到很多这样的情况。创业者通常太忙，没时间在社交媒体上花太多时间，但你会看到一些科学家、学者和记者对生活感到沮丧，因为他们对现实持悲观看法。这影响了他们主观的世界体验。
另一方面，创造者正试图把某种新东西带到这个世界上。
Naval： 不幸的是，悲观会自我实现。
在这里，我们采取这样的立场：一切邪恶都源于知识的缺乏。理性乐观是出路。数据支持这一点，历史也支持这一点。
通过创造力，我们总能想出好的解释，来改善我们自己和所有人的生活。
所以，保持乐观吧。
Naval: Professions in which you get your feedback from other members of that profession tend to get corrupted.
When you see a journalist writing articles to impress other journalists or a restaurant owner trying to impress other foodies and restaurant owners, it’s usually not practical or high-quality.
The journalist or restaurant owner may receive accolades within certain elite circles, but that doesn’t reflect reality.
A scientist or an experimentalist gets feedback from Mother Nature, and an entrepreneur gets feedback from a free market in which people vote with their money and time. Those are much better predictors.
People who get paid to operate in the real world tend to be optimistic. People who operate in ivory towers are incentivized to be pessimists.
Brett: To be an entrepreneur, you need to be optimistic about the fact that you’re creating something that other people are going to find value in.
People who have a pessimistic philosophy tend to have a pessimistic psychology as well.
If you’re constantly thinking about all the ways in which the world is going to wreck and ruin, then this has a day-to-day impact on your outlook on everything—the rest of society, your family, and your friends—because you think this world is condemned.
You’re going to feel that weight on your shoulders, and that’s going to come through in how you present yourself to the rest of the world.
We see a lot of this on social media. Entrepreneurs are typically too busy to spend a whole lot of time on social media, but you get scientists, academics and journalists who are depressed with life because they have a pessimistic view of reality. That impacts their subjective experience of the world.
On the other hand, people who are creating are trying to bring something new into existence.
Naval: Unfortunately, pessimism is self-fulfilling.
Here we take the stance that all evils are due to lack of knowledge. Rational optimism is the way out. The data supports it, and history supports it.
Through creativity, we can always come up with good explanations to improve our lives and everybody else’s lives.
So stay optimistic.