播客 · 财富 · 2019-07-29Podcast Wealth · 2019-07-29

净现值:未来收入今天值多少Net Present Value: What Future Income Is Worth Today

Nivi: 我们来谈谈净现值(NPV)吧。

Naval: 净现值的意思就是:"我未来将获得的那一串付款——今天值多少钱?"

这里有个常见的例子:你加入一家创业公司,拿到股票期权,创始人说:"这家公司将来会值 10 亿美元,我给了你公司 0.1% 的股份;所以,你拿到的是价值 100 万美元的股票。"

用贴现率算出未来收入今天值多少钱

创始人是在按公司未来的价值来谈判。你必须用贴现率(或者说利率)来算出它今天值多少钱,这个比率要把创业公司面临的巨大风险算进去。

你最后会得出公司今天实际值的金额。这就是风险投资家愿意投资这家公司的价格。

如果创始人最近以 1000 万美元的估值完成了一轮融资,那么公司目前只值创始人所说的未来价值的 1%。所以你那份 100 万美元的期权包实际只值 1 万美元。你应该对在脑子里做粗略的净现值估算这件事习以为常。

Nivi: Let’s talk about net present value (NPV).

Naval: Net present value is when you say, “That stream of payments I’m going to get in the future—what’s it worth today?”

Here’s a common example: You’re joining a startup and getting stock options, and the founder says, “This company is going to be worth $1 billion, and I’m giving you 0.1% of the company; therefore, you’re getting $1 million worth of stock.”

Figure out what future income is worth today by applying a discount rate

The founder is negotiating based on what it’s going to be worth in the future. You have to figure out what it’s worth today by applying a discount rate, or an interest rate, that accounts for the massive risk startups face.

You’ll end up with the amount the company is actually worth today. That’s the price at which a venture capitalist would invest in the company.

If the founder recently raised a round at a $10 million valuation, then the company’s only worth 1% of what the founder says it will be worth. So your $1 million package is actually worth $10,000. You should get very comfortable doing rough net present value calculations in your head.

版权与来源声明:本文由「Naval 中文阅读站」翻译整理,仅供学习交流。原作者为 Naval Ravikant(纳瓦尔·拉维坎特),原文发布于 https://nav.al/npv,版权归原作者所有。本站为非官方、非授权的独立翻译站点,与 Naval、nav.al 无任何关联;如内容有误译,请以英文原文为准。