推演计算Extrapolating Computing
还记得大型机包揽所有计算任务的时代吗？那时候，工作站不过是挂靠在大型机上的哑终端。终端的性能更弱，但“便携性”更强。
后来人人都有了台式机。台式机成了你完成大部分计算的地方。而你随身携带的是性能不足的笔记本电脑，它要么得和台式机同步，要么得接上大屏幕、键盘和鼠标才能好用。笔记本的性能更弱，但比台式机便携。
如今，多数早期用户都把笔记本电脑当作主力电脑，随身带着性能不足的智能手机，还得定期和笔记本同步。智能手机的性能更弱，但怎么说呢，它更便携。
在一段时间内，我们会把智能手机“插”到笔记本电脑上。但如果从计算设备的发展历史来推断，笔记本电脑迟早要被扔进垃圾堆。
这意味着 Apple 会没事，Google 也会没事。但如果 Windows Mobile 能说明问题的话，Microsoft 可就麻烦大了。
Remember when mainframes did all of the computing? And workstations were dumb terminals docked to the mainframes? The terminals had less power, but were more “mobile.”
Then everyone got a desktop. And the desktop is where you did most of your computing. And you carried around your underpowered laptop, which had to be synced with your desktop, or docked to a big screen, keyboard and mouse to be usable. The laptop had less power, but it was more mobile than the desktop.
Now most early adopters have a laptop as their main computer. And are carrying around their underpowered smartphone, which has to be synced with their laptop on a regular basis. The smartphone has less power, but well, it’s more mobile.
We’ll dock our smartphones to our laptops for a while. But, if we can extrapolate from the history of computing, the laptop is headed for the dustbin.
Which means that Apple will be ok. Google will be ok. But if Windows Mobile is any indicator, Microsoft is in deep, deep trouble.