更多的算力并不会产生 AGIMore Compute Power Doesn’t Produce AGI
纳瓦尔：通用人工智能（AGI）那帮人也完全搞错了："只要增加算力，就会得到智能"，可我们根本不知道底层是什么在让我们拥有创造力、能提出好的解释。
人们经常谈论 GPT-3——OpenAI 推出的文本匹配引擎，是一个非常了不起的软件。他们说："嘿，我可以用 GPT-3 生成很棒的推文。"那其实是因为：第一，作为人类，是你从它生成的大量垃圾中挑选出好的推文；第二，它靠的是抄袭加同义词替换之类的组合，拼凑出听起来煞有介事的内容。
要看出它生成的东西其实毫无意义，最简单的办法是追问它一个问题。拿一段 GPT-3 生成的输出，问它"为什么会这样？"，或者基于它做出预测，然后看着它彻底垮掉——因为它背后没有真正的解释。
它只是在鹦鹉学舌。它是在做漂亮的贝叶斯推理。它根据网上人类生成的已有内容进行外推，但它没有一个关于现实的底层模型，无法用"未见"来解释"所见"。而我认为这正是关键所在。
这是人类独一无二的本领，我们所遇到的其他任何生物、任何计算机、任何智能——无论是生物智能还是人工智能——都做不到。
而且这不只是我们独有的能力：假如我们遇到一个外星物种，它们也有能力提出这些好的解释，那么它们能提出的任何解释，我们都能理解。
我们的理解能力是最大化的。在这个物理现实中，不存在任何一个可能的概念，是人类在充足的时间、资源和教育条件下所无法理解的。
Naval: The artificial general intelligence crew gets it completely wrong, too: “Just add more compute power and you’ll get intelligence,” when we don’t know what it is underneath that makes us creative and allows us to come up with good explanations.
People talk a lot about GPT-3, the text-matching engine that OpenAI put out, which is a very impressive piece of software. They say, “Hey, I can use GPT-3 to generate great tweets.” That’s because, first, as a human you’re selecting the good tweets out of all the garbage that it generates. Second, it’s using some combination of plagiarism and synonym matching and so on to come up with plausible sounding stuff.
The easiest way to see that what it’s generating doesn’t actually make any sense is to ask it a follow-up question. Take a GPT-3 generated output and ask it, “Why is that the case?” Or make a prediction based on that and watch it completely fall apart because there’s no underlying explanation.
It’s parroting. It’s brilliant Bayesian reasoning. It’s extrapolating from what it already sees out there generated by humans on the web, but it doesn’t have an underlying model of reality that can explain the seen in terms of the unseen. And I think that’s critical.
That is what humans do uniquely that no other creature, no other computer, no other intelligence—biological or artificial—that we have ever encountered does.
And not only do we do it uniquely, but if we were to meet an alien species that also had the power to generate these good explanations, there is no explanation that they could generate that we could not understand.
We are maximally capable of understanding. There is no concept out there that is possible in this physical reality that a human being, given sufficient time and resources and education, could not understand.